With the post positions finalized it is finally time to map out potential wagers. I began mapping out some ideas last night and am certainly, pardon the pun, lost in the fog as to where I want my focus to be. Surely the card is loaded with a fair amount of underlays, the key though is finding them.

The Breeders’ Cup presents the most potential for a handicapper on the yearly calendar. Not only can you find grade one winners at double digits, but history indicates a plethora of longer priced horses tend to come in.

This year I feel apprehensive about a fair amount of the longer prices, but at the same time, just as apprehensive about the shorter priced horses.

Lost in the Fog, for example, will surely face his toughest test yet. And though Pomeroy has opted out due to a potential leg injury, there are others that will try and run early. Even money on any horse in the Breeders’ Cup is insane.

Leroidesanimaux is quite short on the morning line as well, surely not at a price I want to use him. Like Lost in the Fog, this race is the most difficult scenario he’s faced yet. I’m still not convinced his victories have been against the greatest of groups.

As these ideas raced through my mind while mapping out potential series wagers, I felt most excited about the first set of races. If you can find a way to defeat Adieu, Folklore, Oujia Board, Lost in the Fog and Leroidesanimaux, you could be sitting on a huge payoff. Each have question marks, meaning the rolling pick threes in the first five races are loaded with potential value. Even if one or two of them flop, the payoffs figure to be solid. A good chunk of my bankroll will be geared on these races.

The final three races seem the most competitive. Stellar Jayne and Ashado are clear top choices, but both Happy Ticket and Society Selection have back-class and proven ability to compete. Clearly the most wide-open race on the day is the Turf, with nearly all competitors having a legitimate chance at victory. The Classic has a dominating top three, with tricky posts, but three none-the-less increases the ticket price significantly.

Spending the next three days adjusting value lines and molding those wagers is a wise idea. Tomorrow we’ll narrow down the fields and sometimes Friday evening I’ll post a “Live from Belmont Park” preview of the greatest day. In the meantime, here are some mid-week thoughts:

Juvenile Fillies:

One of the horses I planned on using, Keeneland Kat, was scratched early Wednesday leaving us a field of ten young fillies. Folklore is very suspect with the inside post and short price, I now give the edge between the probably top two choices to Adieu. I still remain very interested in Original Spin, Along the Sea and Ex Caelis. I feel all three could take one step forward and be right on the same level as Adieu.

Juvenile:

One of the most surprising morning line odds is Sorcerer’s Stone, sitting with a good post at 12-1. Remember, he’s entering this race fresh avoiding that back-breaking speed in the Champagne. My trip notes for his win at Arlington Park also suggest there is room to improve, “Tracked, they came after him and he just ran away on the wrong lead.” Patrick Byrne has been quoted as saying he is a Derby horse and is by Gulch, who throws route runners.

Filly and Mare Turf:

Wend at 10-1 is not what I was expecting, but realistically this group is very evenly matched. Film Maker once again fails to garner significant respect. I also still feel that Sundrop, if she can gain a good trip, could hit the board at boxcar odds. Ouija Board is way outside with plenty of run to the turn, but I can already see she will be over bet.

Sprint:

My top two, Wildcat Heir and Lost in the Fog, break right next to each other. I wish Wildcat Heir would have drawn a bit more outside since I feel he might be most effective stalking. Speightstown though tucked nicely behind last year. If he stays anywhere near 10-1, I’ll be all over him.

Mile:

Leroidesanimaux will come from the outside meaning any speed to his inside will force him off the rail a bit. Singletary at 8-1 is a very attractive price but I will also look to include longshots Host and Gorella in my combinations.

Distaff:

Stellar Jayne will break alongside Ashado with Frankie Dettori. I would have preferred Jerry Bailey, but he opts for Sweet Symphony instead. I wish the scenario was a touch different, Stellar Jayne I feel could stalk and even close if need be. With the draw, she’s almost forced into a pace-pressing role. With all this considered, the pace scenario might tilt a bit more towards speed-heavy on top versus originally thought.

Turf:

The rabbit, I feel, will make no difference. In fact, he hasn’t in both rabbit-roles yet. This race remains the most wide open on the card and might be the race I anticipate the most. Bill Mott was quoted as hedging the entry of Shakespeare with a potential soft turf alluding to his sire, that makes me weary of him. Better Talk Now, like stable mate Film Maker, receives no respect despite almost winning this race last year.

Classic:

Good luck Saint Liam and good luck Borrego. Outside posts in the Classic, although history dictates that might not be a terrible deal. On the flip side, Rock Hard Ten draws the rail. They seem to tower over this group, but it is only fitting they overcome troubled posts in the process. Perfect Drift has an ideal spot to see what happens early and his Pacific Classic still makes me like him.