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Monday, 08 September 2008
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NYRA Feature Race Analysis, Nov 23rd PDF Print E-mail
Wednesday, 23 November 2005
A real trappy 6-horse feature to begin Thanksgiving week in New York. (Remember, there will be racing on Thanksgiving Day with an early post time).
With weather handicappers calling for rain, today's "NW of 3 other/than, $75,000 optional claimer" likely will be run over a wet surface.

Here are three betting interests that look interesting, with a chance for value if Rick Dutrow scratches the likely favorite, Slew Motion.

"The Chief," Allen Jerkens, is batting 25 percent at the meet and is sending out Game Card, a 4-year-old who appears to be cycling back to her best effort, one that would make her highly competitive here. Coupled with that assessment is the fact that her best figure was earned on this surface in the spring at 7 furlongs, a sixteenth of a mile farther than today's race. That race is a good barometer since the racing dynamics between 7 furlongs and today's hybrid 6-1/2 are virtually the same.

A filly that will be a price is shipper Really Royal. Second off a layoff and turning back into a sprint, trainer Mike Jablow brings along stable jockey Oliver Castillo for the ride. Want more trainer intent than that? The mare has a modicum of class and deserves to be used at what figures to be more than fair odds.

Dutrow has entered Slew Motion and Twist And Pop naming different riders, indicating he likely will run both. Faster than the group on her best game, Twist And Pop earned her best figure in a sloppy-track sprint, conditions that could prevail today. Talented position rider Chuck C. Lopez gets the call. Slew Motion is a somewhat promising 3-year-old from high profile connections with stable rider Edgar Prado up. She figures to be overbet and is not as fast as today's rivals. We have no interest in her as a win play, but are interested in getting value on her mate should Dutrow elect to scratch.

THE PLAY: Exacta key box Dutrow entry first and second with Game Card and Really Royal. Should Slew Motion scratch, take 3-1 or more to win on Twist And Pop. If Slew Motion starts, or if both fillies enter the starting gate, we're taking a win pool pass.


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