Not even a change to green silks on St. Patrick’s Day for Any Given Saturday could deny 2-year-old champ Street Sense a hard-earned victory in the Tampa Bay Derby (gr. III). Also on Saturday, rapidly emerging stars Cobalt Blue and Curlin burst on the Derby scene with impressive scores in their two-turn debuts.

It just goes to show you that on any given Saturday, even Todd Pletcher can lose a 3-year-old stakes, not to mention a photo. But it took a champion to make such rarities happen. Just when it looked like it was time once again to start fumbling through stagnant brain cells trying to come up with yet another twist to the Pletcher juggernaut that has been running roughshod over the Derby trail, here came Street Sense, whose well-positioned nose put a temporary halt to Pletcher’s run of victories.

But even when Pletcher loses, he wins, as Any Given Saturday, despite the heart-breaking defeat, actually gained in stature after his gutsy performance. In the grand scheme of things, it’s not really important who won or lost the Tampa Derby, but what effect this toe-to-toe battle will have on both colts, and even more important, what impact it will have on the Derby picture.

You can say that Street Sense was fortunate to get another rail-skimming trip, while Any Given Saturday was forced to lose ground racing outside horses. Then again, you can point out that only one other horse on the 13-race card won on the inside, as the vast majority of winners came from the three-path or wider. Also, Any Given Saturday had the benefit of a race over the deep, quirky Tampa surface, while Street Sense was testing it for the first time. So, let’s call that a wash.

It was commented on ESPN that having this hard a race first time off a layoff could put Street Sense in danger of following Read the Footnotes, who never seemed to recover from his gut-wrenching battle with Second of June in his 3-year-old debut, the 2004 Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. II).

The feeling here is that you can’t compare the two races or horses. Read the Footnotes was a stalker, who was under some degree of pressure throughout most of the race, and was put under extreme pressure earlier than Street Sense. The latter lagged some seven lengths off a moderate pace and then quickly closed in on the leaders under no urging whatsoever from Calvin Borel, who didn’t even go to his whip until just outside the eighth pole. So, although this was a rousing battle, Street Sense was not under extreme pressure for very long, and there is no reason why this race should take so much out of him that it would compromise his chances in the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I).

In fact, with only two scheduled starts, he needed one of them to be a tough race in order to get him battle-tested for the big one, and this certainly accomplished that. With his next start, the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I), coming three weeks before the Derby, trainer Carl Nafzger can now afford to give him a race similar to Unbridled’s performance in the Blue Grass – a good solid effort that will set him up for a peak effort on Derby Day.

If he wins, while saving something in the tank, fine. If he regresses slightly off the Tampa Derby (who’s to say he won’t actually improve off it?) and runs a good second or even third to a top-class horse like Any Given Saturday or Great Hunter, he’ll still be in good shape to peak on the day that it counts. That is something Nafzger has been a master at getting a horse to do. He got Unbridled to peak on Derby Day and Breeders’ Cup day, and Unshaded to peak on Travers (gr. I) day.

In the Tampa Derby, Street Sense rattled off three straight quarters in :24 flat before coming home his final sixteenth in a sharp :06 1/5 to set a track record for a mile and a sixteenth. Any Given Saturday’s fractions were equally as impressive. These are two terrific horses, pure and simple.

If Street Sense bounces out of the Tampa Derby in good shape and resumes training on schedule, he shouldn’t suffer any consequences from this race. As Nafzger’s mentor John Nerud said of Street Sense after the race, “This colt has got a helluva motor. And he’s got the lungs and the heart.”

Nafzger usually tells it like it is, so if he says all is well with the colt, you can believe him.

As for Any Given Saturday, his performance solidified his status as one of the leading Derby contenders, and despite losing the head bob, his reputation actually was boosted. It appeared as if Street Sense was holding him safe until he dug in and came on again in the final 70 yards. More important, unlike the Sam F. Davis, in which he basically went through the motions against an inferior field, while running with his head a bit high, he was all business this time and was striding out with more authority. This is a powerfully made colt who can stand up to pressure, and he’s only going to get better. And he’s now shown on two occasions against the best of his generation that he won’t back down from a fight.

For those who love to watch strategy unfold, it was interesting seeing John Velazquez cruising up to the two leaders on the outside while continuously looking back over his left shoulder for Street Sense. When he saw the champ come rolling through on the rail, he quickly began pushing on Any Given Saturday before Street Sense could get too big a jump on him. Any Given Saturday responded, and as soon as they straightened out in the stretch, you knew this was going to be a battle.

I’m not a fan of jockeys looking around to that extent for a particular horse instead of just concentrating on their own horse, especially when he is just about to change leads. But Velazquez is one of the smartest riders in the country, and he no doubt wanted to see if his main opponent was going to get through on the inside or not. When you’re up against the champion, it’s natural to want to know where he is. Sure, he could have gunned Any Given Saturday earlier to try to get the jump on Street Sense, but this still was a prep for the Derby, and it’s more important to teach a horse to settle for as long as possible before you step on the gas.

Although Any Given Saturday has been running fairly close to the pace in his last three races, he did demonstrate a brilliant turn of foot when exploding from eighth on the turn to win a 1 1/16-mile allowance race over Keeneland’s Polytrack last fall, in which he drilled stablemate Sam P. by three lengths. So, it will be interesting to see how he runs when he returns to Polytrack for the Blue Grass. He has settled into a running style in which he uses his tactical speed more, but it’s good to know he does have that quick-fire acceleration if he ever needs it.

He has shown more professionalism with each race. He cost himself a chance to win the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II) when he drifted out twice, just when it looked as if he had Tiz Wonderful measured. He corrected that in the Sam Davis, but still didn’t seem to have it all together. In the Tampa Derby, he blossomed into a classy, professional running machine. And he isn’t through yet.

Going back to the opening graph reference, Any Given Saturday, who had been running in WinStar Stable's silks, donned the green silks of co-owner Padua Stables for the Tampa Bay Derby.
Source tcm.bloodhorse.com